📫 The next recession? Not so fast

Good morning, leaders. 

Let’s look at some of the hottest business news at a glance.

Week’s Top Updates

• Why Ford believes its $1.9 billion shift in EV strategy is the right choice for the company, investors. (more)

• VCs are increasingly buying shares of late-stage startups on the secondary market as they try to get pieces of the hottest ones — especially AI companies. (more)

• Space startup GalaxEye, started by IIT Madras alumni, eyes private satellite launch in 2025 (more)

This Week's Big Picture

The Sahm Rule Just Flashed Red: Here's Why Founders Should Care (But Not Panic)

Remember those economic indicators from your business classes? One of them just screamed "recession incoming!" loud enough to make Wall Street nervous.

It's called the Sahm Rule, and it's got an impressive track record.

Here's the twist: Claudia Sahm, the economist behind this indicator, is saying we shouldn't jump to conclusions.

"This time really could be different," she says.

Now, where have we heard that before?

But before you start planning your next pivot, let's look at why Sahm might have a point:

• The job market is doing a strange dance. Post-pandemic shifts and recent immigration are making unemployment numbers unpredictable. Old indicators might be misreading these moves.

• Consumers are still spending. Either they know something we don't, or we're all in for a surprise later.

• Businesses aren't cutting back yet. Investment is steady, suggesting that those with deep pockets aren't too worried.

So, what should a smart founder like you can do with this info? Here are some ideas:

• Focus on runway. If you've been all about growth, it might be time to watch your spending. A lean operation could be your safety net if things get tough.

• Diversify your customer base. If you're relying on one industry, start exploring others. You might find your next big market.

• Keep an eye on talent. If big tech starts laying off, you could snag that amazing developer you've been dreaming about. Be ready to hire.

The Sahm Rule might be flashing red, but for the prepared founder, it's less of a stop sign and more of a "proceed with caution" yellow light.

Trend Spotlight

Oil and Gas Will Still Be the Dominant Sources of Energy by 2050

Exxon's latest report on the future of energy paints a picture that might surprise many.

Despite the push for renewables, the oil giant predicts that by 2050, oil and gas will still dominate the global energy mix at 54%, with demand remaining above 100 million barrels per day.

The report breaks down the rest of the 2050 energy landscape as follows: 

• Coal: 13%

• Nuclear: 6%

• Bioenergy: 10%

• Renewables (wind, solar, hydro): 15%

Major Industry Demand Drivers:

• Population growth: 8 billion now to 10 billion in 2050

• 15% increase in global energy use needed

• Developing countries: 25% increase in energy use

• Developed countries: 10% decrease due to efficiency

Report suggests that even greater adoption of electric vehicles won't significantly impact oil and gas usage.

On the environmental front, Exxon predicts the first drop in carbon emissions will occur in 2030.

Funding Roundup

• Eruditus, an Indian edtech startup, is in advanced stages of talks to secure about $150 million in new funding.

• The first defense startup to receive backing from Y Combinator, Ares Industries, launched earlier this week.

• Uppercase secures $9 million Series B funding, founder Sudip Ghose unveils grand plans for the company.

• Consumer finance startup Axio has secured $20 million in equity funding from Amazon Smbhav Venture Fund.

• Yubi, an end-to-end debt lifecycle company, has announced a board-approved equity capital infusion of Rs 250 crore in the company.

• Ayurveda D2C brand Goodveda plans to raise $1 million to fund growth plans.

• Indian startups raised $6.3 billion through 672 venture capital (VC) deals in January-July, an almost 43 percent year-on-year increase in funding.

• OpenAI in talks to raise funding that would value it at more than $100 billion.

• French startup WATTALPS raises €11M to make high-performance Li-ion batteries affordable.

Tools To Try This Week

• Notion: Write internal company documentation on Notion, you can also easily share documents with your customers, investors, potential hires, and partners. (Try it here)

• Nota: Use Notta to automatically record, transcribe, and summarize your meetings into actionable text.(Try it here)

• Apollo IO: Can assist with outbound sales by providing verified email addresses and phone numbers of potential customers. (Try it here)

• Helium10: Improve your performance and drive higher sales for your eCommerce business (Try it here)
  

• Lemlist: Build your lead list with verified emails, write and personalize at scale, and send cold emails that actually get customers. (Try it here)
  

• Anyword: Anyword is an AI writing platform Categoryfor enterprise marketing teams. (Try it here)

And That's a wrap

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